During a risk meeting the team runs a quantitative risk analysis model many times using computers. The result will be a cumulative probability distribution (S-curve) showing the probability of achieving different outcomes. Which method should the project manager use to assess and manage these risks?
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Correct answer: Monte Carlo analysis.
Why this is the answer
Monte Carlo analysis is a quantitative risk analysis technique that simulates a model many times, using random values for input variables that have a range of possible values. This process generates a range of possible outcomes and their probabilities, often presented as a cumulative probability distribution (S-curve), making it ideal for assessing and managing risks in complex projects. Influence diagrams visually represent decision problems, showing relationships between decisions, uncertainties, and objectives, but don't perform simulations. Sensitivity analysis determines how changes in one variable impact the outcome, but doesn't simulate multiple variables simultaneously. Decision tree analysis helps choose between options when uncertainty exists, by mapping out decisions and their potential consequences, but it's not a simulation technique for generating probability distributions.
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